Total energy demand from electric vehicles across GB will hit 80TWh by 2050, and over 25% of that will come from vehicles that cannot charge at home (‘On-street households’). Current charger deployment is six years ahead of EV rollout, but capacity will need to grow by ~22.7TWh to meet 2050 demand.
A comprehensive report by leading net zero data consultancy Field Dynamics provides the most up-to-date forecast of energy demand from Electric Vehicles across GB, highlighting spatial variations in both public charging ‘need’ as well as existing charger rollout and capacity. We see total energy demand for EV charging increasing to 18TWh by 2030, 69TWh by 2040, and 80TWh by 2050. Of that 80TWh, 21TWh will be from on-street charging, with local authorities such as Birmingham (337MWh), Glasgow (279 MWh) and Edinburgh (237 MWh) seeing the highest levels of public need.
Whilst existing overall capacity is theoretically able to meet total demand until 2031, there are significant spatial disparities. Three local authorities, most notably Westminster and Hammersmith & Fulham, already have enough chargers to meet their 2050 demand, whilst EV demand across eight local authorities will exceed the currently installed capacity by 2026.
The new analysis provides invaluable insights for CPOs, DNOs and Councils to assess eventual load / demand within their respective areas, but also to help them understand how many chargers are required, where they should be installed and when they are needed.
Field Dynamics’ Managing Director, Craig Stephenson, believes these findings are crucial to help stakeholders anticipate local needs, enabling smarter planning and investment on the transition toward net zero.
“This report is a timely reminder that while the UK’s EV infrastructure is, on the whole, ahead of demand, we cannot afford to be complacent. The real story lies in the local detail—some areas are charging ahead, while others are facing imminent shortfalls. By identifying where and when demand will emerge, we’re giving stakeholders across the sector the data they need to plan strategically and invest wisely. The transition to net zero isn’t just about how fast we move, but how intelligently we do it.”
You can view our interactive report and download the PDF version here:
Methodology
Field Dynamics has assessed ~95 million MOT records, census records, NCAP classifications and vehicle efficiencies to build a hyper-granular view of energy demand across Great Britain to 2050. We’ve combined this with our analysis of over 28 million households to determine if a vehicle could be parked and charged on each property, allowing us to map actual demand on the public charging network from on-street households. We’ve integrated this with EV uptake curves to assess the total demand for every year and have worked with our partners at Zapmap to understand current charging infrastructure across GB, highlighting the spatial disparities in supply and demand.
Key Research Findings
- Average mileage across GB is ~137 miles / week but this is significantly higher for certain vehicles e.g. Large LGVs (~236 miles / week).
- Total energy demand from cars and vans across Great Britain will hit 80TWh by 2050 but there are significant spatial variations across, and within, all three nations.
- On-Street demand for public charging will reach 21 TWh by 2050; the majority of this in England (18 TWh).
- Based on current infrastructure, overall capacity in GB is six years ahead of EV rollout, with current capacity projected to meet demand until ~2031.
- There is significant spatial variation in infrastructure delivery. Three local authorities (most notably Westminster, and Hammersmith & Fulham) already have enough capacity to meet 2050 demand, whilst eight local authorities will run out by 2026, with more in subsequent years.
