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Councils agree on the best electric vehicle adoption curve to follow

When planning electric vehicle infrastructure, you need to understand the potential growth of electric vehicle (EV) ownership. You need an EV adoption curve to help create a common forecast that a council can use across multiple projects, a research point that can help with stakeholder management and a reference point to compare evolving behaviours.

In our JumpStart programme, Field Dynamics has worked with 76 local authorities across England, Scotland and Wales to help them understand the future electric vehicle environment. The vast majority of those councils used the same EV adoption curve.

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There are several different adoption curves you can use to predict how big the EV market will be over the coming decades. When you look at these adoption curves together (see graph) there’s quite a large variance between them.

Through our work with local authorities, the National Grid Future Energy Scenarios Consumer Transformation curve has been consistently chosen as the most closely related to strategy and policy initiatives.

The National Grid use an enormous amount of data to make these predictions with Distribution Network Operators taking these to create a more localised versions for their networks. We’ve seen these localised versions shared with local authorities too.

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Examples of EV adoption curves avaliable

Looking at National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios Consumer Transformation adoption curve, 36% of vehicles on the road will be BEV by 2030, which equates to almost 13 million vehicles.

*based on 36 million vehicles on road

The BEVs on the road figure is based on the assumption of like for like replacement of vehicles. Of course, this is an undesirable outcome as authorities are looking to improve public transport utilisation so these figures probably won’t be accurate for 2030.

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National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios Consumer Transformation EV adoption curve

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The EV marketplace is noisy and constantly changing, with the only certainty being that mass EV adoption is coming.

No adoption curve will be completely accurate and should only be used as a guide. There are countless factors that can affect adoption, not least battery production, which will need to be dramatically increased to match the required adoption.

We’ve worked with 76 councils and helped them cut through this noise. Our process to do this is called JumpStart.  Jumpstart is a structured, proven approach that builds an evidence foundation specific for your authority based on all the key national data sets and processed through a series of objective analysis sessions. It gives you all the information you need to deliver on these EV challenges to the point of operational hand-off. It’s a constant resource for you to reach for whenever you need objective, data based, accurate evidence to back up your approach.